Inflation Concerns (March 2022 Insights)
Updated: Feb 7
“The arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislatures. The inflation tax has a fantastic
ability to simply consume capital.”
- Warren Buffet
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and persisting supply chain disruptions has contributed to rising costs in energy, housing, food and many other categories which is pushing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The impact of these expected rate hikes and the geopolitical uncertainty has pummeled the stock market in 2022 with the S&P 500 down 12.35% and the NASDAQ down 18.88% as of mid-March.
Unfortunately, the issue in the public market extends beyond inflation. There has been a historic run-up in the market as the S&P 500 has averaged 14.7% in the last five years vs. a historical average of 6% over the past 100 years. As such, 87% of surveyed strategists believe the market will be at or below the historical average over the next five years.
Real Estate Syndications as a Hedge Against Inflation
Because real estate syndications are not correlated with the stock market (unlike publicly traded REITs), they have historically performed well in periods of strong inflation and strong growth as demonstrated in the graph below:
Real estate syndications offer three main hedges against inflation:
Sponsors have the ability to raise rents annually which increases the property value and NOI
Many real estate leases have contractual rent bumps that are linked directly to annual inflation rates
Higher inflation leads to higher replacement costs, including construction materials, labor, and land parcels. Such factors make new development projects more expensive, which should limit new supply and give more room for existing assets to grow rents and appreciate in value.
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